Analysis of the current situation and future development trend of China’s neodymium iron boron market
As the third-generation permanent magnet material, NdFeB is the magnetic material with the widest application, the fastest development, the best all-around performance, and the best cost performance. Due to the highest magnetic energy product and the corresponding coercivity obtained by using rare earth elements, it can significantly improve the efficiency of electric energy-mechanical energy conversion and play a core material role in carbon emission and energy saving, which is widely used in new energy vehicles, energy-saving home appliances, consumer It is widely used in new energy vehicles, energy-saving home appliances, consumer electronics, clean energy, and other fields. We will analyze the current situation of China’s rare earth permanent magnet industry, the demand forecast, and raw material supply in the 14th Five-Year Plan and propose corresponding suggestions and recommendations.
1. The current situation of the NdFeB permanent magnet material industry
1.1 Status of NdFeB permanent magnet material
In 2001, China surpassed Japan in NdFeB production and became the world’s largest producer of NdFeB. With the improvement and maturity of equipment and process technology, domestic NdFeB production is growing rapidly. By 2020, the global NdFeB production will exceed 200,000t, and the market scale will grow significantly. China’s Nd-Fe-B production has reached 186,000t, which is more than 90% of the global production, and China has become the main production area of Nd-Fe-B magnetic material.
There are six NdFeB production bases in China: Ningbo, Beijing, Tianjin, Ganzhou, Baotou, Shandong, Shanxi, etc. (Table 1).
Currently, Ningbo accounts for more than 1/3 of China’s NdFeB production, while Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei accounts for 15% of the production, followed by Shandong, Baotou, Ganzhou, and Shanxi. Driven by market and cost, the China Nd-Fe-B industry is moving to Baotou, Ganzhou, Ningbo, Jiangsu, and Shandong.
1.2 Price fluctuation
In recent years, the price of NdFeB products in China has had a divergent trend. The market competition has intensified as the demand for NdFeB products in traditional consumer electronics and industrial fields tends to stabilize or decrease.
Table.1 Number of enterprises and production ratio of six major NdFeB production bases in China
| Distribution of production enterprises | Beijing Tianjin Base | Ningbo Base | Shanxi Base | Shandong Base | Baotou Base | Ganzhou Base | Other | Total |
| Number of enterprises | 8 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 33 | 156 |
| Proportion of output/% | 12 | 41 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 100 |
Note: The above data is from China Rare Earth Industry Association
Therefore, the profit margin of middle and low-end NdFeB products is limited due to the shrinking demand and increasing competition pressure. Due to the increase in demand for high-performance NdFeB products in new energy, consumer electronics, energy-saving inverter home appliances, and energy-saving and environmental protection industries, the price of high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material has been driven up. On the other hand, the quality fraction of neodymium (praseodymium) is about 30% of NdFeB permanent magnet, and the cost ratio is 60%-75%, which is directly affected by the fluctuation of the raw material price of rare earth metals, and the rise and fall of NdFeB price.
1.3 Industry development trend
According to the announcements made by the main listed companies in China’s NdFeB industry (Ningbo Heli, Zhonghe, Sanhuan, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhenghai Magnetic Material, etc.), the gross margin of the main NdFeB manufacturers will show a trend of falling, then slightly rebounding and finally stabilizing from 2012 to 2020. In recent years, the competition in the magnetic material industry is getting more and more intense, the middle and low-end market is basically in the situation of homogenization and low-price competition, and the competition situation is still spreading to the high-end products, the profit margin of the enterprises in the industry is further decreasing and gradually stabilizing at about 21% (Figure 1).
As the competitiveness of the Chinese NdFeB permanent magnet material industry is gradually strengthened. The head enterprises such as Ningbo Heli, Zhongke Sanhuan, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and Zhenghai Magnet are gradually formed, their production and sales volume is at the forefront in China, their technical level and profitability are further improved, the concentration of the industry is gradually improved and the industry tends to be standardized.
Figure.1 2012-2020 average gross margin of 10 listed companies in China
2. NdFeB permanent magnet industry application market status and development forecast
The application field of the NdFeB magnet is wide, and the product demand is very broad. The downstream applications of NdFeB magnets are mainly divided into two categories: traditional applications, including VCM, consumer electronics (smartphones, tablet PCs, notebooks, etc.), and basic industry (motor cubes, electro-acoustic, magnetic separators, electric bicycles, toys, luggage buckles, etc.), and the demand is relatively stable. A new energy and energy-saving environmental protection field, including wind power generation, industrial robots, energy-saving elevators, energy-saving environmental protection air conditioning, new energy vehicles, EPS, rail transportation, etc., is mainly used in rare earth permanent magnet motors. In the permanent magnet motor, the excitation by using permanent magnets can not only reduce the power consumption and achieve the purpose of energy saving but also improve the operational performance of the motor.
2.1 Demand analysis of neodymium iron boron in the wind power industry
According to the new energy development plan of the State Council, by 2025, the proportion of domestic clean energy will reach about 20% of the domestic energy supply, corresponding to the average annual installed capacity of domestic wind power and photovoltaic needs to be kept above 120GW, according to the structure of 6:4 between photovoltaic and wind power, in the next 5 years, the average new installed capacity of wind power in China will be 50GW/year, maintaining stable growth.
The semi-direct-drive and direct-drive AC permanent magnet synchronous motors in wind power motors need NdFeB permanent magnets. The penetration rate is rapidly increasing due to easy maintenance. The domestic penetration rate of direct-drive and semi-direct-drive AC PM synchronous motors increased from 35% in 2016 to about 40% in 2020 and is expected to rise to 45% by 2025. Correspondingly, the global NdFeB demand will increase from 5628t in 2016 to 12712t in 2020, and the domestic demand is expected to maintain between 6000-8000t/year in 2021-2025. The global demand for NdFeB in wind power is expected to reach 14850t in 2025 (Table 2, Figure 2).
Table.2 Calculation table of NdFeB demand in the wind power field
| Year | 2016A | 2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Domestic wind power installed capacity/GW | 18.73 | 19.66 | 18 | 25.72 | 71.67 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Direct drive (semi direct drive) permeability/% | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 45 |
| Global wind power installed capacity/GW | 48.73 | 47.64 | 53.9 | 65.06 | 96.3 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 100 |
| Direct drive (semi direct drive) permeability/% | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 45 |
| Domestic demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 2 163 | 2 336 | 2 138 | 3 140 | 9 460 | 6 765 | 6 930 | 7 095 | 7 095 | 7 425 |
| Global demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 5 628 | 5 660 | 6 403 | 7 944 | 12 712 | 10 824 | 11 781 | 12 771 | 13 481 | 14 850 |
Note: The data source is National Energy Administration, where A indicates the actual value and E is the expected value.
Fig.2 Histogram of demand for NdFeB in the wind power field
2.2 Analysis of NdFeB demand in the new energy vehicle industry
After China’s new energy vehicles experience the cost decline of the whole industry chain and subsidy retreat in 2018-2019, its driving force will gradually transition from policy to market demand in 2020 and start a new round of product and demand-driven high-speed growth period. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, with the further improvement of emission reduction policy standards, new energy vehicle sales again into the acceleration phase is expected in 2021-2025 new energy vehicle industry will maintain a high growth trend and the average annual growth rate of more than 30%. The drive motor for new energy vehicles will become the most important incremental part of NdFeB demand in the future (Figure 3).
Figure.3 China new energy vehicle sales bar chart
Electric vehicles generally use a single motor, some high-performance models use a double motor, and the general drive motor needs to use 2kg NdFeB permanent magnet material (the specific amount needs to be calculated according to the torque and power of the vehicle).
In 2020, the demand for NdFeB magnets for new energy vehicles in China will be 3186t, and by 2025, the demand for NdFeB magnets for new energy vehicles drive motors in China and the world will reach 11400t and 28800t, respectively (Table 3, Figure 4).
Table.3 Demand for NdFeB in new energy vehicles
| Year | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025A |
| Domestic new energy sales/10000 vehicles | 138 | 177 | 232 | 295 | 382 | 480 | 633 |
| Permeability of rare earth magnetic material/% | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Global new energy sales/(10000 vehicles, including HEVs) | 441 | 574 | 637 | 790 | 995 | 1 230 | 1 600 |
| Permeability of rare earth magnetic material/% | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Domestic demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 2 484 | 3 186 | 4 176 | 5 310 | 6 876 | 8 640 | 11 394 |
| Global demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 7 938 | 10 332 | 11 466 | 14 220 | 17 910 | 22 140 | 28 800 |
Data source: China Association of Automobile Industry
Fig.4 Histogram of demand for NdFeB in the new energy automobile field
2.3 Analysis of NdFeB demand in the industrial robot industry
With the development of China’s economy, enterprises adopt machines to replace workers to reduce labor costs. According to the data of the Robotics Industry Alliance, in 2020, the sales of industrial robots in China will reach 156,000 units, becoming the largest industrial robot market in the world. According to the International Federation of Robotics, after 2020, the growth rate is forecasted to be more than 10% per year. In 2025, China’s industrial robot sales will reach 305,000 units (Figure 5).
Figure.5 Sales of industrial robots in China, 2017-2025
Data source: International Federation of Robotics
Drive motors are the core components of robots, and permanent magnet synchronous servo motors are the mainstream drive motors used in the industry. According to the experience of industrial robot industry manufacturers, the amount of NdFeB used per 10,000 industrial robots is 250t; in 2020, the demand for NdFeB magnets for industrial robots in China is 3900t, and the demand for NdFeB magnets for industrial robots in the world is 9925t.
By 2025, the demand for NdFeB magnets for industrial robots in China will be 7625t (Table 4, Figure 6).
Table.4 Estimated demand for NdFeB in the industrial robot industry
| Year | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Sales volume of industrial robots in China/10000 units | 14.9 | 15.6 | 18 | 20.6 | 23.5 | 26.8 | 30.5 |
| Global sales of industrial robots/10000 units | 37.3 | 39.7 | 45.2 | 51.6 | 58.8 | 67 | 76.4 |
| Domestic demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 3 725 | 3 900 | 4 500 | 5 150 | 5 875 | 6 700 | 7 625 |
| Global demand for neodymium, iron, and boron/t | 9 325 | 9 925 | 11 300 | 12 900 | 14 700 | 16 750 | 19 100 |
Data source: Robotics Industry Alliance
Fig.6 Demand for NdFeB magnets in the industrial robot industry from 2016-2020
2.4 Analysis of demand for NdFeB in the energy-saving inverter home appliance industry
In recent years, inverter home appliances have been in the stage of comprehensive promotion and application, especially the inverter air conditioner, favored by consumers for its low-frequency start, low starting current, fast cooling and heating, energy saving, and other characteristics. According to online industry data, in 2009, household air conditioners produced 80,782,000 units, of which 8,132,000 units of inverter air conditioner production. In 2020, household air conditioners produced 216,310,000 units, of which 74,854,000 units of inverter air conditioner production. 2009, air conditioner production has been growing year by year, with the proportion of inverter air conditioners from 10% in 2009 to 34.6% in 2020. As the production and sales volume rose steadily simultaneously, the proportion of inverter air conditioners gradually increased (Figure 7).
Figure.7 Household air conditioner production and inverter air conditioner production histogram
Data source: Industry Online
According to the amount of NdFeB needed for a single inverter air conditioner motor is 0.075kg, the sales volume of a domestic inverter air conditioner is 57.73 million units in 2020; in addition, the spare compressor parts for maintenance and replacement is about 10%, the amount of NdFeB needed is 5017t.
With the implementation of the new standard on air conditioner energy efficiency in July 2020 and overseas economic development and energy consumption standard improvement, the penetration rate of an inverter air conditioner is expected to increase to more than 40% by 2025, which will consume 8129t of NdFeB (Table 5, Figure 8).
Table.5 Calculation table of NdFeB demand in inverter air conditioner field
| Year | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Domestic production of household air conditioners/10000 units | 21 866 | 21 631 | 21 631 | 21 631 | 21 631 | 21 631 | 21 631 |
| Output of variable frequency air conditioners/10000 units | 5 473 | 5 773 | 6 272 | 6 921 | 7 570 | 8 219 | 8 868 |
| NdFeB Demand/t | 5 017 | 5 291 | 5 750 | 6 345 | 6 939 | 7 534 | 8 129 |
Data source: Industry Online
Fig.8 Histogram of NdFeB demand in the field of variable frequency air conditioner
2.5 Demand analysis of neodymium iron boron in the elevator industry
With the rapid development of China’s economy and urbanization, China’s elevator industry is experiencing a stable growth period.
According to the statistics of the China Elevator Association, since 2017, the output of elevators in China has maintained a relatively stable and rapid growth trend year by year.
In 2018, the output of elevators (excluding escalators) in China was 850,000 units. The output of energy-efficient elevators in China will be 1.08 million units in 2020, with a projected future growth rate of 10%.
Figure.9 Elevator production in China, 2017-2025
Data source: China Elevator Association
According to the motor of a single elevator that needs 6kg sintered NdFeB permanent magnets, the quantity of sintered NdFeB permanent magnets consumed by the elevator in 2024 is about 9503t (Table 6, Fig.10).
2.6 Analysis of NdFeB demand in the electric bicycle industry
According to the statistics of the China Bicycle Association, in recent years, the annual sales of electric bicycles in China exceeded 48 million units, the social retention is close to 300 million units, and the output of bicycles over 1000 yuan continues to grow. The consumption potential of leisure fitness and sports bicycle, electric power-assisted bicycle, special vehicle for older people, high-quality new children’s cars, electric balance bikes, and other products continues to grow. After implementing the new national standard for electric bicycles, the industry has shifted from high-speed development to high-quality development. The output of electric bicycles in China is expected to grow to nearly more than 56 million units in 2021 (Figure 11).
Table.6 Estimated demand of NdFeB in the elevator industry
| Year | 2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Elevator output/10000 units | 81 | 85 | 98 | 108 | 119 | 131 | 144 | 158 | 174 |
| Growth rate/% | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| NdFeB Demand/t | 4 860 | 5 100 | 5 880 | 6 480 | 7 140 | 7 854 | 8 639 | 9 503 | 10 454 |
Data source: China Elevator Association
Figure.10 Demand for NdFeB magnets in the elevator industry, 2016-2025
Figure.11 Electric bicycle production and growth rate, 2015-2025
Data source: China Bicycle Association
Both e-bikes and balance bikes use permanent magnet brushless motors; the key to motor performance is strongly magnetic; among various permanent magnet materials, NdFeB permanent magnet material has superior performance. According to 2t sintered NdFeB permanent magnets per 10,000 e-bikes and electric balance bikes, the quantity of sintered NdFeB permanent magnets consumed by e-bikes and electric balance bikes is about 12340t in 2025 (Table 7, Figure 12).
Table.7 Calculation of NdFeB demand in the electric bicycle field
| Year | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E |
| Output and Forecast of Electric Bicycles/10000 Units | 3 609 | 2 966 | 3 800 | 3 900 | 400 | 4 100 | 4 200 |
| Production and forecast of electric balance vehicles/10000 vehicles | 1 730 | 1 770 | 1 810 | 1 850 | 1 980 | 1 930 | 1 970 |
| Total/10000 vehicles | 5 339 | 4 736 | 5 610 | 5 750 | 5 890 | 6 030 | 6 170 |
| Growth rate/% | 6.9 | -12.7 | 15.6 | 2.4 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| NdFeB Demand/t | 10 678 | 9 472 | 11 220 | 11 500 | 11 780 | 12 060 | 12 340 |
Data source: China Bicycle Association
Fig.12 Electric bicycle production and NdFeB demand
2.7 Demand analysis of neodymium iron boron in consumer electronics
In 2020, fully benefiting from the high boom in some fields of consumer electronics, the new crown epidemic and the first recovery of the industry chain, and the increase of market share, the rare domestic earth permanent magnet company NdFeB will have more applications in the fields of consumer electronics and mechanical hard disk VCM.
2.7.1 Mobile phone acoustics and TWS components
(1) Iphone cell phone acoustic system.
Since iPhone7 and Apple cell phone is equipped with dual speakers as standard, the demand for NdFeB permanent magnets for cell phone speakers is around 0.5g, and the relative amount of speakers used in high-end cell phones is larger, which can reach more than 0.7-0.8g (Figure 13).
Figure.13 Global (a) and Apple cell phone (b) shipments (million units)
Data source: IDC
In 2020, iPhone phone shipments reached 207.1 million units, up 5% year-on-year. In addition, the penetration rate of dual speakers in Android phones is gradually increasing, further driving the growth of dual speaker demand (Table 8).
Table.8 Calculation of demand for NdFeB in cell phone speakers
| Year | 2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E |
| Global mobile phone shipments (million units) | 1 466 | 1 395 | 1 371 | 1 292 | 1 318 | 1 344 | 1 371 |
| Number of speakers required (million) | 1 759 | 1 674 | 1 645 | 1 551 | 1 582 | 1 613 | 1 646 |
| Required neodymium iron boron product quality/t | 1 231 | 1 255 | 1 233 | 1 240 | 1 265 | 1 290 | 1 316 |
| Yield/% | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Required blank quality/t | 2 462 | 2 511 | 2 468 | 2 481 | 2 531 | 2 581 | 2 633 |
Data source: IDC
(2) Wireless charging coils provide new demand for NdFeB.
iPhone12 series products are equipped with a wireless charging coil as standard; this wireless charging design solution will significantly drive the use of NdFeB permanent magnet, the amount of a single machine is around 1g; meanwhile, wireless charger accessories are also equipped with similar NdFeB magnetic ring situation as standard, which will enhance the demand at the same time. Such wireless charging products are expected to become standard in Apple and high-end Android phones in the future.
(3) High-performance vibration motor penetration rate is increased.
The linear vibrator in cell phones gradually becomes standard in a cell phone; the demand for NdFeB in a single linear vibration motor is expected to be around 0.5g, which is a certain increase compared to the demand for 0.2g NdFeB in a common rotor motor. In 2020, the iPhone system and iWatch series will ship about 206 million and 40 million, respectively, and the Macbook series will ship 20 million units in 2021. According to the estimation, the demand for magnetic material for iPhone and iWatch TapicEngine products is 125t, and the consumption of NdFeB magnets for Macbook products is about 140t; the total for both is 265t. The demand for NdFeB billets is about 530t.
(4) The rapid penetration of TWS headphone products.
With the transition of Bluetooth technology from the fourth generation to the fifth generation and the development of Bluetooth chip design, the experience of the TWS headset (true wireless Bluetooth headset) is greatly improved, and the global TWS headset is rapidly penetrating. All major consumer electronics manufacturers have launched TWS headset products, and white-label headphones are shipped on a large scale (Figure 14).
Figure.14 TWS headset shipments
Data source: IDC
According to 0.2g of NdFeB used for each ordinary TWS headphone and 0.3g for high-end products, Apple AirPods series and Android brand high-end headphones account for 40% of the demand for high-end NdFeB for TWS headphones is expected to be 319 and 424t in 2021 worldwide.
The demand for high-end NdFeB blanks is 638 and 869t in 2021, according to the calculation of 50% of the finished material rate (Table 9), because of the small size of TWS headphones, high processing difficulty and complex surface coating treatment.
Table.9 TWS headphones demand for NdFeB is measured.
| Year | 2017A | 2018A | 2019A | 2020A | 2021E | 2022E |
| AirPods series/10000 pairs | 1 600 | 2 200 | 6 500 | 8 970 | 12 000 | 16 440 |
| Android brand/10000 pairs | 400 | 1 800 | 6 400 | 14 030 | 24 700 | 33 560 |
| White card/10000 pairs | 360 | 1 440 | 6 400 | 14 030 | 24 700 | 33 560 |
| High end demand for neodymium, iron, boron/t | 12 | 24 | 77.4 | 138 | 220.2 | 300 |
| Ordinary demand for neodymium, iron, boron/t | 1 | 6 | 26 | 56 | 99 | 134 |
| Total demand for neodymium, iron, boron/t | 13 | 30 | 103 | 194 | 319 | 434 |
| Number of blanks required/t | 26.9 | 59.5 | 206 | 388.2 | 638 | 868 |
Data source: IDC
2.7.2 Mechanical hard disk for data center
In 2020, the epidemic accelerated the penetration of online offices, video conferencing, short video, etc., and the acceleration of claudication in various industries, driving data center investment back to growth. Global mechanical hard disk shipments are shown in Figure 15.
Figure.15 Global mechanical hard disk shipments data
Data source: Nidec
The demand for sintered NdFeB for mechanical hard disk VCM is 4-5g/pc; according to the future mechanical hard disk shipment in 2021, the demand for magnetic material will be slightly increased by the increase of capacity, the demand for sintered NdFeB for mechanical hard disk VCM in 2021 is 940-1175t, according to the 50% rate, the demand of rough material is 1880-2350t. The demand for billets will be 1880-2350t.
3. Market trend analysis
3.1 Analysis of the NdFeB permanent magnet material market
In terms of magnet demand, in 2020, China will use 41,000t of NdFeB magnets in consumer electronics, wind power, industrial robots, inverter air conditioners, energy-saving elevators, electric bicycles, new energy vehicles, etc.; in 2025, it is expected to reach 62,000t, with huge development space. The demand for NdFeB magnets in new energy vehicles grows by 258%, followed by industrial robots, which grows by 96%, energy-saving elevators, which grows by 61%, inverter air conditioners, which grows by 54%, consumer electronics, which grows by 50%, and electric bicycles, which grows by 30%; in addition, the growth rate of wind power slows down slightly due to the wind turbine installation in 2020. 2021-2025, consumer electronics, wind power, wind power, inverter air conditioners, electric bicycles, etc., The overall demand for NdFeB magnets for industrial robots, inverter air conditioners, energy-saving elevators, electric bicycles, and new energy vehicles is shown in Figure 16.
In terms of demand structure, in 2020, the demand for NdFeB magnets will be 186,000t, and the downstream application of NdFeB will be 134,000t, according to 72% of the finished product. The demand for NdFeB for new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is 2%, which is relatively small.
Figure.16 2019-2025 China NdFeB permanent magnet material demand forecast
Source: Data summary of the previous article
According to the growth rate of NdFeB permanent magnet material of 6.5% per year, the output is expected to be 255,000t in 2025. New energy vehicles and energy-saving elevators will be the main driving force of NdFeB demand growth, accounting for 6%. Compared with 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles is expected to increase by 4%. In 2025, the application of new energy and energy saving and environmental protection will account for 34% of the total output, up from 30% in 2020. In the future, the scope and scale of application of NdFeB permanent magnet materials in new energy and energy saving and environmental protection will be further increased under the high-speed development of strategic emerging industries such as energy saving and environmental protection, information technology, and high-end equipment.
3.2 Analysis of raw material demand
The industry chain upstream of the NdFeB permanent magnet material industry is the rare earth smelting industry (including the heavy rare earth smelting industry and light rare earth smelting industry) and the pure iron manufacturing industry. Among them, neodymium (praseodymium) element accounts for 20%-30% of the quality of NdFeB permanent magnets.
In the future, NdFeB permanent magnet material industry will drive the demand for rare earth to show a growing trend; according to the growth rate of 6.5% per year of rare earth permanent magnet material, it is expected that by 2025, the output of magnetic material will be 255,000t. The global demand for rare earth oxide will reach 450,000t.
4. Future development trend analysis
4.1 Demand continues to grow at a high rate
With the increasing awareness of global environmental protection, new energy vehicles, wind power, inverter air conditioners, and other products will benefit from the accelerated promotion of carbon peak and carbon neutral policy, which will support the rapid growth of NdFeB magnets. The strong market demand in the downstream industry will drive the rapid development of the NdFeB permanent magnet material industry, which will continue to grow by more than 6.5% in the next 5 years.
4.2 Rapid increase in demand for rare earth resources
NdFeB permanent magnet material will increase the demand for rare earth resources, especially for key elements such as praseodymium, neodymium, terbium, and dysprosium. To increase significantly rare earth industry will have a high light moment. At the same time, rare earth raw material costs 60%-75% of the production cost of NdFeB permanent magnet materials; the sharp fluctuation of rare earth raw material prices will not only affect the profitability of enterprises but also directly impact the competitiveness of NdFeB permanent magnet products. The stable price of rare earth raw materials is important for the healthy development of the NdFeB permanent magnetic material market.
China should continue to strengthen the exploration of new rare-earth magnetic materials and the development of high-grade rare-earth magnetic materials so that China can sustain the development of rare-earth magnetic materials. At the same time, we should strengthen the integration of the rare earth industry, improve the management and technology level, and keep an active position in the rare earth industry transfer process to China. In general, NdFeB permanent magnet is facing a good application prospect.
Authors: Zhang Yingjian, Li Jun, Ma Xiaohui, Fang Cheng, Li Yuchuan
